![]() The July employment change is expected to see softer job growth at 15,000, while the unemployment rate ticks higher to 3.6%. Wednesday contains the release of the Westpac Leading index and Thursday has the employment report. On Tuesday, second quarter wage price data is expected to show small increases both on a quarterly and annual basis, rising 1.0% and 3.8% respectively. The week ahead contains a few key economic reports. The release of trade data and wholesale prices are also expected this week. The surge in pricing pressures isn’t expected to persist, but it could keep the pressure on the RBI in delivering hawkish holds. The key highlight will be the July inflation report, which should so inflation heated back up over 6%. On the earnings front, key results are expected from Tencent, CSL, CNOOC, ITC, JD.com, and HKEX. On Tuesday, we will have new home prices for July. Also on Tuesday, three key data releases will be watched: July industrial production will likely show activity ticked lower from a month ago to 4.3%, Retail sales is expected to increase from 3.1% to 4.0%, and investments in fixed assets are expected to hold steady at 3.8%. This is likely to be a tactical pause that paves the way for a September cut. It is unclear what billionaire Chair Yang Yuiyan will be willing to do.ĭespite some recent soft economic data points, the PBOC might keep its one-year rate steady at 2.65% for a second straight month, following June’s 10 basis point cut. No major economic releases or events next week.Īnother quiet week with PPI data released on Tuesday the only notable event.Ī lot of attention will remain on Country Garden, as the struggling property firm is at risk of default. The tightening cycle may now be over but the pain may still be to come. The central bank has raised rates aggressively over the last two years which will take a toll on the economy and may show up in the figures next week. Further evidence of inflationary pressures building could tempt the CBR to raise interest rates again.Ī few data releases of note next week with unemployment on Tuesday and retail sales on Wednesday. PPI data is released on Wednesday and follows the CPI release last week which was not as bad as feared, although it did tick higher from June. That said, there’s still a long way to go and as it stands, markets are positioned for rates not to fall in the UK until the third quarter of next year. A below forecast reading on both the headline and core inflation readings came as a great relief and a repeat performance could see interest rate expectations pared back further. ![]() There’s no doubt about which the headline act will be considering the rare and welcome surprise we were treated to last month. Next week is the big data drop for the UK, with the jobs report on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. That aside we have some surveys on Tuesday which will be of interest and GDP and employment data on Wednesday. ![]() The only one that has the potential to fill that role is the final HICP inflation numbers on Friday and history would suggest the numbers tend to fall largely in line with expectations which is why it isn’t considered tier one. There’s no shortage of economic releases next week but there isn’t one that stands out as a potential game-changer. His last comments came a month ago, emphasizing that entrenched inflation could prompt the Fed to hike further.Įarnings for the week include Home Depot, Cava Group, Target, Cisco, Walmart, Applied Materials, and Deere & Co. ![]() Fed’s Kashkari has the lone scheduled appearance on Tuesday. On Wednesday, The FOMC minutes for the July 26th policy decision will be released, but that might not be as market moving as Fed swaps are very confident that the Fed will keep rates on hold. Thursday focuses on jobless claims and whether the labor market continues to cool and if the Philly Fed business outlook remains downbeat. On Wednesday, housing data should show both starts and building permits rebounded in July, alongside improving industrial production data. Also on Tuesday is the Empire manufacturing report which should show August activity remains weak and the release of July’s import price index, which should show a decent rebound, but that comes after prices have steadily plunged since the summer. The economic data starts on Tuesday with a July retail sales report that should show spending picked up from a month ago, which was boosted by Amazon’s Prime Day. With Wall Street very confident that the Fed won’t be raising rates in September, the focus shifts to how strong is the economy and whether it is too robust and if that could sparking fear that inflation might reaccelerate.
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